Hindsight is 20/20: Looking Back at the 2023 Rookie Draft Class (Part 1: Round 1 Picks 1-6

After a full season of experience under (most of) their belts, I felt like now would be a great time to take a general pulse of the 2023 Rookie Draft Class for Dynasty. This will be a 4 part series covering the 4 Rounds of the Rookie Draft, with Part 1 today covering the first half of Round 1.

When calculating Average Draft Position (ADP) I left out the one TE premium league that we are in currently. This is a mix between full PPR with 1 half PPR league mixed in, all are 12 teams and most are start 11. If you would like to do this at home, you take the total sum of each players drafted position across all of your leagues, and then divide by the number of leagues they were drafted in. For the most part, I believe these are an accurate tracking of ADP last year, with the only outlier being a Jonathan Mingo making his way into the first round at the 1.08 in one of our drafts.

The reason to dive into this and look at it is not to point fingers and say "player X was a bust, we called it", this is to figure out who the market is out on, why and whether or not they may be a good value grab. On the flip side, we are also going to be looking at who the market is in on, and if whether or not that is deserving.

1.01: Bijan Robinson (Highest Drafted 1.01 - Lowest Drafted 1.01)

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Bijan was the consensus number 1 pick in Rookie Drafts, so no surprise here. His market value has increased a bit since being drafted at the 1.01, but not by all that much. He played in all 17 games, and averaged roughly 14.78 Fantasy PPG. Pretty good for a rookie, and there is an expected increase/progression to come this year since he will not be in an Arthur Smith offense.

The biggest problem we had with Bijan and still have is just an overall philosophical roster construction issue. We don't like carrying heavy insulated value into our RBs. Yes, Bijan has remained in the 1.10/1.11 range of Startup value right where the 1.01 was going. However, gone are the days where RBs go in the top 2-3 picks of a startup draft, therefore being one of THE assets to have. It seems like his ceiling is tapped, happy to have Dynasty RB 1, but it is certainly a safer pick to make for short term, while the shelf life/overall life span feels like the riskiest with Robinson being a RB.

1.02: Anthony Richardson (Highest Drafted 1.02 - Lowest Drafted 1.03)

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Okay, maybe Bijan wasn't THE riskiest pick to make. A lot of people fell in love with the raw traits of AR15 last draft cycle. They had every right to. His arm transformed into a cannon in the underwear Olympics after all!

Richardson was a great target for tanking teams after he went down for the year after just a few games. Even still, his market value has INCREASED since being drafted. We saw him go as early as the top 5 in a startup draft we did this past winter.

AR15 has soooo much upside. His rushing ability could probably take you to the Fantasy playoffs on his own. However, his short - intermediate passing game at the pro level so far has looked atrocious. He has a LONG way to go. The market loves AR, the market has always loved AR. It's time to sell.

Don't worry! You can still get a hyped rushing prospect for him (AR + a 2026 mid 3rd is market value for Jayden Daniels and a late 2026 1st). It's okay to gamble, we are just advising that you mitigate risk by targeting the same style of player and adding a 1st.

1.03: Bryce Young (Highest Drafted 1.02 - Lowest Drafted 1.04)

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I guess the more "polished guy" isn't always the safe value insulation pick over the high ceiling, low floor guy.

I am going to refrain from as much Young hate as possible. I have said it all before. I advised back in May to sell him while you still can. Fitting that on the day when I post this article it's announced that he is benched in favor of the 36 year old "Red Rifle".

1.04: CJ Stroud (Highest Drafted 1.03 - Lowest Drafted 1.06)

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Stroud has soared in value since last years' Rookie Drafts. We saw him go at the 1.03 in a Startup this past year. Landing in what was considered the "desolate" landing spot of Houston, he excelled as a rookie, and took some rebuilders to champions quickly. The 1.04 pick is usually the teams that aren't good enough to tank all of the way, but not quite good at the playoffs. So you can assume there's a decent core that accompanied Stroud on most rosters.

We mentioned our Buy/Sell Episode of the podcast that we are out on Stroud at current market value. I think it's fine to keep him. However, I am not looking to buy any at the current price. He has been great, but market value has been catapulted by a bit of recency and youth biased. I think after his rookie season Stroud will have some solid value insulation for some time to come, so liquidate if you want, but if not keep him and enjoy it!

1.05: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Highest Drafted 1.03 - Lowest Drafted 1.07)

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JSN is one of the first players that we have seen to actually lose a bit of value. My question is why? We knew that he got drafted into a loaded WR room with 2 veterans clearly ahead of him on the depth chart. Was he horrible? No. He just didn't get very many targets, and he didn't exactly produce with those targets either. He wasn't horrible, just underwhelming.

(I should note that he finally had *that* breakout game yesterday.) Any who, JSN is valued at a late 2025 1st right now. If I am a competitor I am probably not looking to add pieces that clearly can't put up points right away.

However, if I am a tanking/rebuilding team that has acquired a projected late 1st then I am smash buying JSN for a late 1st (if I can still get him for that).

1.06: Jahmyr Gibbs: (Highest Drafted 1.05 - Lowest Drafted 1.06)

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Everything that was said about RBs in the Bijan portion of the article, I would like to reiterate here.

However, the biggest note is that Gibbs averaged 16.1 PPG which was more and is valued cheaper right now. His value took a big dip last October when he was incorporated into the offense right away, but we now know that the Detroit offense can safely sustain both Gibbs and Montgomery for fantasy purposes. Not to mention that Gibbs is an absolute PPR nightmare.

It shouldn't be a Bijan vs Gibbs debate, it's a Bijan value vs Gibbs value AND Bijan production vs Gibbs production. What kind of opportunity cost are you giving up when paying more for Bijan, when you could be getting more production from Gibbs for a tad cheaper. At that value, if I am going to buy any of the top 5 RBs Gibbs feels like the smash.

Stay tuned for Picks 7-15 later this week!