Hindsight is 20/20: Looking Back at the 2023 Rookie Draft Class (Part 1: Round 1 Picks 1-6

After a full season of experience under (most of) their belts, I felt like now would be a great time to take a general pulse of the 2023 Rookie Draft Class for Dynasty. This will be a 4 part series covering the 4 Rounds of the Rookie Draft, with Part 1 today covering the first half of Round 1.

When calculating Average Draft Position (ADP) I left out the one TE premium league that we are in currently. This is a mix between full PPR with 1 half PPR league mixed in, all are 12 teams and most are start 11. If you would like to do this at home, you take the total sum of each players drafted position across all of your leagues, and then divide by the number of leagues they were drafted in. For the most part, I believe these are an accurate tracking of ADP last year, with the only outlier being a Jonathan Mingo making his way into the first round at the 1.08 in one of our drafts.

The reason to dive into this and look at it is not to point fingers and say "player X was a bust, we called it", this is to figure out who the market is out on, why and whether or not they may be a good value grab. On the flip side, we are also going to be looking at who the market is in on, and if whether or not that is deserving.

1.01: Bijan Robinson (Highest Drafted 1.01 - Lowest Drafted 1.01)

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Bijan was the consensus number 1 pick in Rookie Drafts, so no surprise here. His market value has increased a bit since being drafted at the 1.01, but not by all that much. He played in all 17 games, and averaged roughly 14.78 Fantasy PPG. Pretty good for a rookie, and there is an expected increase/progression to come this year since he will not be in an Arthur Smith offense.

The biggest problem we had with Bijan and still have is just an overall philosophical roster construction issue. We don't like carrying heavy insulated value into our RBs. Yes, Bijan has remained in the 1.10/1.11 range of Startup value right where the 1.01 was going. However, gone are the days where RBs go in the top 2-3 picks of a startup draft, therefore being one of THE assets to have. It seems like his ceiling is tapped, happy to have Dynasty RB 1, but it is certainly a safer pick to make for short term, while the shelf life/overall life span feels like the riskiest with Robinson being a RB.

1.02: Anthony Richardson (Highest Drafted 1.02 - Lowest Drafted 1.03)

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Okay, maybe Bijan wasn't THE riskiest pick to make. A lot of people fell in love with the raw traits of AR15 last draft cycle. They had every right to. His arm transformed into a cannon in the underwear Olympics after all!

Richardson was a great target for tanking teams after he went down for the year after just a few games. Even still, his market value has INCREASED since being drafted. We saw him go as early as the top 5 in a startup draft we did this past winter.

AR15 has soooo much upside. His rushing ability could probably take you to the Fantasy playoffs on his own. However, his short - intermediate passing game at the pro level so far has looked atrocious. He has a LONG way to go. The market loves AR, the market has always loved AR. It's time to sell.

Don't worry! You can still get a hyped rushing prospect for him (AR + a 2026 mid 3rd is market value for Jayden Daniels and a late 2026 1st). It's okay to gamble, we are just advising that you mitigate risk by targeting the same style of player and adding a 1st.

1.03: Bryce Young (Highest Drafted 1.02 - Lowest Drafted 1.04)

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I guess the more "polished guy" isn't always the safe value insulation pick over the high ceiling, low floor guy.

I am going to refrain from as much Young hate as possible. I have said it all before. I advised back in May to sell him while you still can. Fitting that on the day when I post this article it's announced that he is benched in favor of the 36 year old "Red Rifle".

1.04: CJ Stroud (Highest Drafted 1.03 - Lowest Drafted 1.06)

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Stroud has soared in value since last years' Rookie Drafts. We saw him go at the 1.03 in a Startup this past year. Landing in what was considered the "desolate" landing spot of Houston, he excelled as a rookie, and took some rebuilders to champions quickly. The 1.04 pick is usually the teams that aren't good enough to tank all of the way, but not quite good at the playoffs. So you can assume there's a decent core that accompanied Stroud on most rosters.

We mentioned our Buy/Sell Episode of the podcast that we are out on Stroud at current market value. I think it's fine to keep him. However, I am not looking to buy any at the current price. He has been great, but market value has been catapulted by a bit of recency and youth biased. I think after his rookie season Stroud will have some solid value insulation for some time to come, so liquidate if you want, but if not keep him and enjoy it!

1.05: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Highest Drafted 1.03 - Lowest Drafted 1.07)

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JSN is one of the first players that we have seen to actually lose a bit of value. My question is why? We knew that he got drafted into a loaded WR room with 2 veterans clearly ahead of him on the depth chart. Was he horrible? No. He just didn't get very many targets, and he didn't exactly produce with those targets either. He wasn't horrible, just underwhelming.

(I should note that he finally had *that* breakout game yesterday.) Any who, JSN is valued at a late 2025 1st right now. If I am a competitor I am probably not looking to add pieces that clearly can't put up points right away.

However, if I am a tanking/rebuilding team that has acquired a projected late 1st then I am smash buying JSN for a late 1st (if I can still get him for that).

1.06: Jahmyr Gibbs: (Highest Drafted 1.05 - Lowest Drafted 1.06)

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Everything that was said about RBs in the Bijan portion of the article, I would like to reiterate here.

However, the biggest note is that Gibbs averaged 16.1 PPG which was more and is valued cheaper right now. His value took a big dip last October when he was incorporated into the offense right away, but we now know that the Detroit offense can safely sustain both Gibbs and Montgomery for fantasy purposes. Not to mention that Gibbs is an absolute PPR nightmare.

It shouldn't be a Bijan vs Gibbs debate, it's a Bijan value vs Gibbs value AND Bijan production vs Gibbs production. What kind of opportunity cost are you giving up when paying more for Bijan, when you could be getting more production from Gibbs for a tad cheaper. At that value, if I am going to buy any of the top 5 RBs Gibbs feels like the smash.

Stay tuned for Picks 7-15 later this week!

Dynasty Market Value: What is it and How to Maximize it

"Market Value" is a term that we love to use in our podcast episodes, social media postings, and a majority of our previous articles. The term is predominantly included with the phrase(s) "player X is a steal at current market value" or "we are fading player Y and liquidating the asset because current market value is too high for us". So, I figured it would be best to write an in depth article on market value and when/how/why to apply it.

"Market Value" as defined by study.com is "the price that something would get on the fair, open market or the value that investors would give to a certain business or business asset."

Simply put, the price that someone can expect to be paid for something or someone should expect to pay for something. The "fair" value. The struggle in finding market value for players and fair valuations for players and picks comes from there not being an exact reliable source of market value. Some in the community live by trade calculators, some hate trade calculators. Some pay "expert analysts" for their most up to date player takes and rankings. There is no Kelly Blue Book that is easily accessible for everyone. The best way that we have found to figure out market value is by scouring the internet to see what general consensus is, to use a combination of different trade calculators, and our own player takes and rankings. The lack of a common valuation center is where new dynasty owners get burned very quickly (and idiots do too). Redraft value is one thing, but dynasty is a whole other ball game. These players are the ones that can destroy leagues and are (un)commonly referred to as "fish".

The disclaimer that I am about to give you is one that you should ALWAYS remember, and if you take nothing else of value from this article, please take this away... Market Value is something that you should get on a fair and open market. Markets in dynasty leagues are rarely fair, and they are rarely open so factor this into your considerations. EVERYTHING IS LEAGUE DEPENDENT!!

Don't worry, I will break that down for you. Leagues vary. A 12 person league is not an entire community market/opinion. It is very important to remember when selling your players to activate a rebuild. So many new owners make the mistake of holding point producing, aging assets for way too long to get "market value" for someone. Yes, there are sometimes when what you are being offered is way less valuable than holding the player. However, just because the market says that Adam Thielen may be worth a 2026 late 3rd does not mean that he has to die on your roster if nobody offers you that 3rd. It is perfectly acceptable and encouraged to cut ties with some players to open up roster flexibility and to win the Max Points For battle in a tank.

Additionally, we see this come true more often than not with the highest tiered dynasty players. Josh Allen is probably worth 3.5 - 4 1sts in value. It is also true that Josh Allen is extremely hard to liquidate for 3.5- 4 1sts. Everyone likes the idea of having a Josh Allen on their roster, but when push comes to shove nobody wants to pay for a Josh Allen (in a 12 team league).

Value also varies not only on your league mates' opinions, but the type of league that you are in. I caught a lot of heat for responding to a Tweet this past weekend where someone traded for Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid. They gave up Deshaun Watson, Pat Freiermuth, TJ Hockenson, 2 1sts and 2 2nds.

In a 10 team league, or a start 10, you want the hammer. You want Josh Allen and his 30 point weeks. In a 12 team start 11 however, (like we usually compete in) I would slightly lean the package although not by much. Give me the liquid assets, and the buy lows on Watson, 'Muth, and 'Hock. There was a lot of backlash when I said that depending on the league, I would lean the package.

Something else that a lot of people miss is that scoring matters as well. If it is a PPR league, I am taking the slot guy over the field stretcher every day of the week. Whereas, in a 4 Point Passing TD league, a Mobile/Rushing QB becomes more valuable.

The best way to capitalize on these inefficient markets is to identify where players you value and prefer are valued differently than on the market. This is something we do with Running Backs A LOT and preach this with our roster construction. The RB position as a whole is volatile. If you can give me a liquid first for pretty much any RB outside of maybe 3, I am very likely to trade them away to you. Coincidentally, I will never trade a 1st for a RB. There are so many fantasy relevant RBs in a given year, and the lifespan for RBs comparatively is so short that I would much rather add points and depth to a position like WR where it can be difficult to be fantasy relevant if you are not the first WR on the depth chart (first 2 in a high powered offense).

Finally, you need to be more active than your league mates. Dynasty Leagues even the ones that are deeper (12 team, 14 team) are not open markets. On average, you will have at least 1 owner that is extremely take locked and difficult to negotiate with, and at least 2 owners will not respond to messaging, and may or may not make a total of 5-10 roster moves the entire year. Regardless, build relationships with those owners when you can, because the difference between getting one deal done or not can be the difference in...

Championships.

State of the Union Time!

It is the most important time of year... Fantasy Football is almost back! It is also arguably the most crucial time of year for dynasty owners to take part in the process in which only the most serious competitors take part in... The time of self-reflection and evaluation. The two of us like to call this time that we spend on each of our teams, going through them, and comparing them to the rest of the league "the State of the Union Time". While the majority of owners across leagues are tweaking their lineups for week 1 and are excited that football is back, this is when you should be really looking to get the jump on the rest of your league. Do you have what it takes to make the playoffs? Should you start selling your older assets now, and jumpstart the tank? Let's figure it out.

A House Divided Cannot Stand:

The first step in the evaluation process is the self-evaluation step. The difference between people who play dynasty for fun, and are actual competitors that play to win are those who can remain as unbiased as possible, and face reality. Be completely honest with yourself. If your team is a championship contender if players A,B,C,D and E break out and player F stays healthy, then you are most likely not a championship contender. It should also be said that your goal every year should be to make the playoffs and ideally get the BYE week. Championships are obviously the best outcome, however, don't bet on them. It takes hard work and skill to make it to the playoffs consistently. After that, the playoffs are a gambling crap shoot.

What is the biggest liability on your roster? The biggest holes? If you need a certain player or two to carry your team and stay healthy (because you have no depth behind them) then identify that and be prepared to pivot if one of those guys goes down and you have yet to acquire depth.

Bounce your rosters off of a friend, send them into us. It is best to get another look at your roster from someone other than yourself to prevent owner biases. People's biggest hurdles to creating dynasty super teams are their own egos and a lack of patience. It is perfectly okay to be wrong, and it is even more okay to wait.

Know Your Enemy:

With that being said, you should also pay attention to where the rest of your league is at. Do you have 3 teams that are already actively tanking? If so, your best bet in a tank may be pick 1.04. On the other hand, if you have 5 teams obviously stacking older assets who will put up points, and nobody has underwent a fire sale, maybe it is time to start acquiring some extra draft capital. The most important thing to do is to avoid the treadmill of mediocrity that so many people fall into.

In one of our 12 team Start 11 Superflex leagues last year, we felt pretty good going into the year with our team. It was solid, yet unspectacular. However, right before the season we really looked at it and realized that even if everything broke right, it was a long shot to make the playoffs, and it REALLY could not compete with the power house teams. So we SOLD, and sold heavy. Nobody else had dedicated themselves to the tank in that league and we cornered the market on first round picks and young talent. That team now has 12 picks in the first 2 rounds of rookie drafts the next 2 years (5 1sts) after having 10 picks this past offseason in the first 2 rounds. Combined with a core of the following players:

QB:

Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye

RB:

Breece Hall, Kyren Williams

WR:

Devante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Jayden Reed, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, Ja'lynn Polk, Diontae Johnson

TE:

Trey McBride, George Kittle, TJ Hockenson

Fading the market is important. Even if you think that you can squeeze a playoff run out of your team, it may be best to maximize the value of your assets, liquidate them, and build. In the 12 team start 11 leagues we were in last year, it took an average of 158.95 points to make it to the playoffs or roughly 2,225.30 in the aggregate. Meanwhile, champions, if they have a really good week and everything hits right will put up 200+ points in a championship matchup. Of course, this all depends on what the rest of your league looks like and is league/format variant.

The Enemy of the Enemy (Is Your Primary Trading Partner)

No matter which way you take your team, start trade dialogues now and always. Some leagues are great with communication, and others may not be so much. It is vital that you yourself always stay as active as possible. Say someone reaches out to buy James Conner this week, but you decide that your competing. Be respectful, and keep the dialogue open. Remember, unless you have 5 star players deep on your bench you could just be one (Insert Star Player Name Here) injury away from needing to liquidate Conner for a 2nd. Never take the first offer unless it is a smash accept, and be willing to spam out offers if you have to.

One particular trade we made last year, got accused of collusion. It was a bad trade, however, the other owner felt they had to make the trade because they received no other offers, and desperately needed to shed points. Remember, if there is a piece out there that goes incredibly under market value, then it turns out that market value in that particular league wasn't very high, or the rest of the league is just lazy. Take advantage of that as best as you can. This is especially important when you ARE on your way to the playoffs and someone else in your league has not self-evaluated correctly. Once a few weeks go by, you want to be the first to be able to buy their aging assets putting up points for pennies on the dollar as they decide to liquidate and try to claw their way back into the points battle for 1.01.

Win Wars; Not Battles:

Another way of putting this is, dynasty is a marathon, not a sprint. Do not mortgage your future for the now. With that being said, we are in it to win it. If we are competing, it is okay to go out and buy points. Just remember that WRs and QBs are longer term assets, meanwhile buying a RB is like buying a car, the used ones are always cheaper and you lose less value when you drive a used one off of the lot. (Jerome Ford for a 3rd is way better value than Kyren Williams for a 1st if we predict they will have the same amount of points).

The main thing to take into consideration when purchasing a competing asset is how many points per week that player will put up for you. If you have a net gain of 0, then the trade obviously is not worth making. However, if player A is putting up 16 PPG and will replace player B (12 PPG) in your lineup, and you really feel like you need those average 4 points to feel better, then pull the trigger. The less points you add to the lineup should mean the less future value you will be willing to give up.

Final Thoughts:

While everyone else gets caught up in who they should be starting this week, and whether or not they need to slot that Thursday guy into their lineup, now is the best time to take a 300 foot view of our dynasty teams. The best way to set yourself up for future success is being able to properly identify where everyone is at in the now, (including yourself). But most importantly...

Are you ready for some football??

Dynasty Data: Bryce Young Stock = The 2007 Housing Market (GET OUT Before it Comes Crashing Down)..

Having been in the dynasty community for awhile (albeit not as content creators until just a few weeks ago) there has been one thing that has stuck out. Creators LOVE to point out their hits way more than they like to point out their misses. We actually prefer to do the opposite here. We are human, we make mistakes. Acknowledging our mistakes and holding ourselves accountable is how we grow, continue to get better, and improve ourselves.

Bryce Young was rated #2 on our prospect board going into rookie drafts last year. The landing spot wasn't spectacular, but the college production, relatively young age, and the 1.01 investment in the NFL draft all stood out. He was at the top of our Tier 2, and QB 1A to Anthony Richardson's QB 1B.

If you have listened to the first couple of episodes of our podcast, you will know that BOY am I down on Bryce Young. There was not a lot to say about his performance last year that was positive at all. He did not pass the eye test. However, today I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. We have considered adding a few shares recently to see if we could get him cheap. (I mean who wouldn't want to add a former 1.01 QB in the NFL draft and 1.02/1.03 Rookie pick at a much cheaper cost a year later). I truly dove into the data with as much of an open mind as possible. What do the numbers say?

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AVOID Bryce Young at all costs. Sell him, tier him down, pay $10,000,000 FAAB and Bryce Young to get a 2026 4th round pick.. Do WHATEVER you have to do in order to maximize his value and get him off of your roster before his value comes completely crashing down. Don't believe me? Let's take a look.

I took a look at QBR (Quarterback Rating) for Rookie QBs since 2017. (For those of you who don't know, QBR per ESPN is:

"ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency."

Total Quarterback Rating is the most accurate way we have at tracking Quarterback performance and efficiency at this point. Any guess what Bryce Young's QBR was for the 2023 season? 33.4... WOOF. To shed some light on that number, a purely average QBR is 50.00. (Brock Purdy led the league with a 72.8 QBR last year).

So what? Bryce had a bad rookie year, so have other QBs in their rookie year... Yep I thought that too. Let's dive into WHO those other QBs are who had as bad (or a bit better) of a QBR as Bryce Young in their rookie years. (In the following list, I have not included ALL of the rookie QBs, just the ones in the range that Bryce Young was in for comparison purposes on bad rookie years).

From Worst to "Not Much Better":

1) 2018 Josh Rosen: QBR (24.1)

2) 2021 Justin Fields: QBR (31.4)

3) 2017 Deshone Kizer: QBR (32.4)

4) 2017 Mitchell Trubisky: QBR (33.3)

5) 2021 Zach Wilson AND 2023 Bryce Young: QBR (33.4)

6) 2021 Trevor Lawrence: QBR (39.1)

Process that for a minute...

All of those names you thought you would never see again ingrained in your brain? Good.

Now, I know there is SOMEONE out there who is either an extreme optimist, or a very big gambler that is saying "Yeah, but Trevor Lawrence bounced back after his rookie season, he had a bad HC like Bryce did etc etc etc..."

One thing we preach when advising dynasty owners is: look at the realm of possibility, it's what we do. There are 7 total names on that list. 5 of which were either out of the league within two years, a backup after two years, or they are Bryce Young.

ONE (1) of those names is Trevor Lawrence. That means Bryce Young has around a 14% chance to have a Trevor Lawrence type of outcome. Even still, Trevor Lawrence has ALSO decreased in Dynasty value recently. We really can't say he has really knocked anyone's socks off. (Actually, he is a lesser version of Jared Goff when you dive into those stats..... but we can save that article for another day).

The most likely range of outcome with Bryce Young is that within the next 2 seasons, he will be relegated to a backup role (or worse).

Don't get me wrong! I am still willing to take a dart throw for a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick (a pick in a range that is a dart throw anyway) in hopes that he has that Trevor Lawrence like outcome. However, he is NOT worth the average of rookie pick 1.12 that he is going for right now (which is around the startup pick 6.05 BTW).

If you pay more than a 3rd for Bryce Young at this point, or you keep him on your roster instead of selling him at the value he has currently (which will crash after the 1.01 value insulation wears off) then you are setting your dynasty team back by at least a year.

Avoid the incoming crash, Avoid Bryce Young, and Avoid anyone telling you that he is a buy.

Who is the Best Superflex Rookie Value Right Now? (Bo Knows)

Let's start this with complete transparency. I hated Bo Nix's profile and lack of performance when he was an SEC QB coming into rookie season this year. I was very close to throwing him off of all of our rookie draft boards. I just can't get past those Auburn stat lines. So what changed that? Three words...

Top 12 Capital.....

That's right. The 6th QB taken in the top 12 in the NFL draft, but taken in the top 12 nonetheless. I was thankful and delighted. This meant that Bo would be pushed up everyone's boards in Superflex, and I wouldn't have to roster a single share of him... Boy was I wrong.

Right now, the common range for Bo Nix is around the 1.11 - 2.02. I have seen some posts where he got pushed down even later, and some push him a few picks up. Right now, however, that is the general range he is going in.

So.... He is going in the 2023 Will Levis range of rookie drafts in 2024... as a QB with top 12 capital...

Sign me up. Why? Value. Where's the value? Let's take a look.

Let's assume that Bo Nix had a fluke year at Oregon last year. Let's say that he has a mediocre rookie year and throws for 3,300 yards, 15 TDs and 9 INTs. Pretty specific numbers? That's because that was the performance that Gardner Minshew put up as an Indianapolis Colt last year.

I think projecting to have a rookie season at the level that Gardner Minshew produced at last year is a VERY safe level of projection. So let's see where that puts him at in the Dynasty perspective.

Depending on format, last year Minshew put up 12.3 PPG. Is that going to blow the competition out of the water in your Superflex? Absolutely not. But it's not as bad as you think. Let's compare to rookie QBs the last two years that matter (2023 draft class and 2021 draft class).

2023 Draft Class Rookie Season:

1. CJ Stroud: 18.7 FPPG

2. Anthony Richardson 18.4 FPPG

3. (Bo Nix) 12.3 FPPG

4. Will Levis 11.8 FPPG

5. Bryce Young 10.4 FPPG

2021 Draft Class Rookie Season:

1. Mac Jones: 14 FPPG

2. Trevor Lawrence 12.7 FPPG

3. Zach Wilson 12.5 FPPG

4. (Bo Nix) 12.3 FPPG

5. Justin Fields: 11.4 FPPG

Pretty solid performance by Nix in comparison, is it not? Now the biggest point, even after the "mediocre" Fantasy performances by Lawrence, Wilson, Levis and Fields, they all INCREASED in market value.

Oh the sweet sweet days of Zach Wilson QB13... Any who, this is someone, who even if he has a Gardner Minshew 2023 as his rookie performance, will realistically be pushed into the top 2 rounds of a Startup draft 8 months from now.

Spend the early 2nd now, bank 2 1sts and thank me later.