Who is the Best Superflex Rookie Value Right Now? (Bo Knows)
Let's start this with complete transparency. I hated Bo Nix's profile and lack of performance when he was an SEC QB coming into rookie season this year. I was very close to throwing him off of all of our rookie draft boards. I just can't get past those Auburn stat lines. So what changed that? Three words...
Top 12 Capital.....
That's right. The 6th QB taken in the top 12 in the NFL draft, but taken in the top 12 nonetheless. I was thankful and delighted. This meant that Bo would be pushed up everyone's boards in Superflex, and I wouldn't have to roster a single share of him... Boy was I wrong.
Right now, the common range for Bo Nix is around the 1.11 - 2.02. I have seen some posts where he got pushed down even later, and some push him a few picks up. Right now, however, that is the general range he is going in.
So.... He is going in the 2023 Will Levis range of rookie drafts in 2024... as a QB with top 12 capital...
Sign me up. Why? Value. Where's the value? Let's take a look.
Let's assume that Bo Nix had a fluke year at Oregon last year. Let's say that he has a mediocre rookie year and throws for 3,300 yards, 15 TDs and 9 INTs. Pretty specific numbers? That's because that was the performance that Gardner Minshew put up as an Indianapolis Colt last year.
I think projecting to have a rookie season at the level that Gardner Minshew produced at last year is a VERY safe level of projection. So let's see where that puts him at in the Dynasty perspective.
Depending on format, last year Minshew put up 12.3 PPG. Is that going to blow the competition out of the water in your Superflex? Absolutely not. But it's not as bad as you think. Let's compare to rookie QBs the last two years that matter (2023 draft class and 2021 draft class).
2023 Draft Class Rookie Season:
1. CJ Stroud: 18.7 FPPG
2. Anthony Richardson 18.4 FPPG
3. (Bo Nix) 12.3 FPPG
4. Will Levis 11.8 FPPG
5. Bryce Young 10.4 FPPG
2021 Draft Class Rookie Season:
1. Mac Jones: 14 FPPG
2. Trevor Lawrence 12.7 FPPG
3. Zach Wilson 12.5 FPPG
4. (Bo Nix) 12.3 FPPG
5. Justin Fields: 11.4 FPPG
Pretty solid performance by Nix in comparison, is it not? Now the biggest point, even after the "mediocre" Fantasy performances by Lawrence, Wilson, Levis and Fields, they all INCREASED in market value.
Oh the sweet sweet days of Zach Wilson QB13... Any who, this is someone, who even if he has a Gardner Minshew 2023 as his rookie performance, will realistically be pushed into the top 2 rounds of a Startup draft 8 months from now.
Spend the early 2nd now, bank 2 1sts and thank me later.
