Dynasty Data: Bryce Young Stock = The 2007 Housing Market (GET OUT Before it Comes Crashing Down)..
Having been in the dynasty community for awhile (albeit not as content creators until just a few weeks ago) there has been one thing that has stuck out. Creators LOVE to point out their hits way more than they like to point out their misses. We actually prefer to do the opposite here. We are human, we make mistakes. Acknowledging our mistakes and holding ourselves accountable is how we grow, continue to get better, and improve ourselves.
Bryce Young was rated #2 on our prospect board going into rookie drafts last year. The landing spot wasn't spectacular, but the college production, relatively young age, and the 1.01 investment in the NFL draft all stood out. He was at the top of our Tier 2, and QB 1A to Anthony Richardson's QB 1B.
If you have listened to the first couple of episodes of our podcast, you will know that BOY am I down on Bryce Young. There was not a lot to say about his performance last year that was positive at all. He did not pass the eye test. However, today I decided to give him the benefit of the doubt. We have considered adding a few shares recently to see if we could get him cheap. (I mean who wouldn't want to add a former 1.01 QB in the NFL draft and 1.02/1.03 Rookie pick at a much cheaper cost a year later). I truly dove into the data with as much of an open mind as possible. What do the numbers say?
GIF
AVOID Bryce Young at all costs. Sell him, tier him down, pay $10,000,000 FAAB and Bryce Young to get a 2026 4th round pick.. Do WHATEVER you have to do in order to maximize his value and get him off of your roster before his value comes completely crashing down. Don't believe me? Let's take a look.
I took a look at QBR (Quarterback Rating) for Rookie QBs since 2017. (For those of you who don't know, QBR per ESPN is:
"ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (Total QBR), which was released in 2011, has never claimed to be perfect, but unlike other measures of quarterback performance, it incorporates all of a quarterback’s contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. Also, since QBR is built from the play level, it accounts for a team’s level of success or failure on every play to provide the proper context and then allocates credit to the quarterback and his teammate to produce a clearer measure of quarterback efficiency."
Total Quarterback Rating is the most accurate way we have at tracking Quarterback performance and efficiency at this point. Any guess what Bryce Young's QBR was for the 2023 season? 33.4... WOOF. To shed some light on that number, a purely average QBR is 50.00. (Brock Purdy led the league with a 72.8 QBR last year).
So what? Bryce had a bad rookie year, so have other QBs in their rookie year... Yep I thought that too. Let's dive into WHO those other QBs are who had as bad (or a bit better) of a QBR as Bryce Young in their rookie years. (In the following list, I have not included ALL of the rookie QBs, just the ones in the range that Bryce Young was in for comparison purposes on bad rookie years).
From Worst to "Not Much Better":
1) 2018 Josh Rosen: QBR (24.1)
2) 2021 Justin Fields: QBR (31.4)
3) 2017 Deshone Kizer: QBR (32.4)
4) 2017 Mitchell Trubisky: QBR (33.3)
5) 2021 Zach Wilson AND 2023 Bryce Young: QBR (33.4)
6) 2021 Trevor Lawrence: QBR (39.1)
Process that for a minute...
All of those names you thought you would never see again ingrained in your brain? Good.
Now, I know there is SOMEONE out there who is either an extreme optimist, or a very big gambler that is saying "Yeah, but Trevor Lawrence bounced back after his rookie season, he had a bad HC like Bryce did etc etc etc..."
One thing we preach when advising dynasty owners is: look at the realm of possibility, it's what we do. There are 7 total names on that list. 5 of which were either out of the league within two years, a backup after two years, or they are Bryce Young.
ONE (1) of those names is Trevor Lawrence. That means Bryce Young has around a 14% chance to have a Trevor Lawrence type of outcome. Even still, Trevor Lawrence has ALSO decreased in Dynasty value recently. We really can't say he has really knocked anyone's socks off. (Actually, he is a lesser version of Jared Goff when you dive into those stats..... but we can save that article for another day).
The most likely range of outcome with Bryce Young is that within the next 2 seasons, he will be relegated to a backup role (or worse).
Don't get me wrong! I am still willing to take a dart throw for a 3rd or 4th round rookie pick (a pick in a range that is a dart throw anyway) in hopes that he has that Trevor Lawrence like outcome. However, he is NOT worth the average of rookie pick 1.12 that he is going for right now (which is around the startup pick 6.05 BTW).
If you pay more than a 3rd for Bryce Young at this point, or you keep him on your roster instead of selling him at the value he has currently (which will crash after the 1.01 value insulation wears off) then you are setting your dynasty team back by at least a year.
Avoid the incoming crash, Avoid Bryce Young, and Avoid anyone telling you that he is a buy.
