Dynasty Market Value: What is it and How to Maximize it
"Market Value" is a term that we love to use in our podcast episodes, social media postings, and a majority of our previous articles. The term is predominantly included with the phrase(s) "player X is a steal at current market value" or "we are fading player Y and liquidating the asset because current market value is too high for us". So, I figured it would be best to write an in depth article on market value and when/how/why to apply it.
"Market Value" as defined by study.com is "the price that something would get on the fair, open market or the value that investors would give to a certain business or business asset."
Simply put, the price that someone can expect to be paid for something or someone should expect to pay for something. The "fair" value. The struggle in finding market value for players and fair valuations for players and picks comes from there not being an exact reliable source of market value. Some in the community live by trade calculators, some hate trade calculators. Some pay "expert analysts" for their most up to date player takes and rankings. There is no Kelly Blue Book that is easily accessible for everyone. The best way that we have found to figure out market value is by scouring the internet to see what general consensus is, to use a combination of different trade calculators, and our own player takes and rankings. The lack of a common valuation center is where new dynasty owners get burned very quickly (and idiots do too). Redraft value is one thing, but dynasty is a whole other ball game. These players are the ones that can destroy leagues and are (un)commonly referred to as "fish".
The disclaimer that I am about to give you is one that you should ALWAYS remember, and if you take nothing else of value from this article, please take this away... Market Value is something that you should get on a fair and open market. Markets in dynasty leagues are rarely fair, and they are rarely open so factor this into your considerations. EVERYTHING IS LEAGUE DEPENDENT!!
Don't worry, I will break that down for you. Leagues vary. A 12 person league is not an entire community market/opinion. It is very important to remember when selling your players to activate a rebuild. So many new owners make the mistake of holding point producing, aging assets for way too long to get "market value" for someone. Yes, there are sometimes when what you are being offered is way less valuable than holding the player. However, just because the market says that Adam Thielen may be worth a 2026 late 3rd does not mean that he has to die on your roster if nobody offers you that 3rd. It is perfectly acceptable and encouraged to cut ties with some players to open up roster flexibility and to win the Max Points For battle in a tank.
Additionally, we see this come true more often than not with the highest tiered dynasty players. Josh Allen is probably worth 3.5 - 4 1sts in value. It is also true that Josh Allen is extremely hard to liquidate for 3.5- 4 1sts. Everyone likes the idea of having a Josh Allen on their roster, but when push comes to shove nobody wants to pay for a Josh Allen (in a 12 team league).
Value also varies not only on your league mates' opinions, but the type of league that you are in. I caught a lot of heat for responding to a Tweet this past weekend where someone traded for Josh Allen and Dalton Kincaid. They gave up Deshaun Watson, Pat Freiermuth, TJ Hockenson, 2 1sts and 2 2nds.
In a 10 team league, or a start 10, you want the hammer. You want Josh Allen and his 30 point weeks. In a 12 team start 11 however, (like we usually compete in) I would slightly lean the package although not by much. Give me the liquid assets, and the buy lows on Watson, 'Muth, and 'Hock. There was a lot of backlash when I said that depending on the league, I would lean the package.
Something else that a lot of people miss is that scoring matters as well. If it is a PPR league, I am taking the slot guy over the field stretcher every day of the week. Whereas, in a 4 Point Passing TD league, a Mobile/Rushing QB becomes more valuable.
The best way to capitalize on these inefficient markets is to identify where players you value and prefer are valued differently than on the market. This is something we do with Running Backs A LOT and preach this with our roster construction. The RB position as a whole is volatile. If you can give me a liquid first for pretty much any RB outside of maybe 3, I am very likely to trade them away to you. Coincidentally, I will never trade a 1st for a RB. There are so many fantasy relevant RBs in a given year, and the lifespan for RBs comparatively is so short that I would much rather add points and depth to a position like WR where it can be difficult to be fantasy relevant if you are not the first WR on the depth chart (first 2 in a high powered offense).
Finally, you need to be more active than your league mates. Dynasty Leagues even the ones that are deeper (12 team, 14 team) are not open markets. On average, you will have at least 1 owner that is extremely take locked and difficult to negotiate with, and at least 2 owners will not respond to messaging, and may or may not make a total of 5-10 roster moves the entire year. Regardless, build relationships with those owners when you can, because the difference between getting one deal done or not can be the difference in...
Championships.